I te 11 o Hune o tēnei tau, i whakaputa mana te Pokapū Matapae Āhuarangi o te Whakahaere Moana me te Āhuarangi ā-Motu (NOAA) o te Hononga o Amerika i tētahi whakatūpato mō El Niño – ko te kupu mana ko "Kua tae mai a El Niño". Ehara tēnei i te pūrongo āhuarangi ā-tau noa. Ko te aromatawai tūponotanga i tukuna i taua wā anō i tohu ko te tūponotanga o tēnei huihuinga kia whanake ki te taumata "tino kaha" i waenga i a Noema 2026 me Hanuere 2027 he teitei ki te 63%, ā, ko tōna kaha ka "noho hei tetahi o ngā mea tino pai i roto i te hītori me ngā rekoata taputapu mai i te tau 1950". Ko te toharite o te matapae huinga o te Pokapū Pākehā mō ngā Matapae Āhuarangi Waenga (ECMWF) he kaha ake: e matapaetia ana ka eke te rerekētanga pāmahana mata moana i te rohe o Niño 3.4 ki te +3℃ i te Hakihea o tēnei tau, ā, ko ētahi āhuatanga ka neke atu i te +4℃.
Hei mārama ki te hiranga o tēnei tatauranga: Ko te huihuinga El Niño tino kaha rawa atu mai i te tīmatanga o ngā rekoata huarere o ēnei rā i puta i te tau 2015-16, me te taumata rerekē o te +2.6℃.Ki te tutuki te matapae i runga ake nei, ka nui ake te tupu i te tau 2026-27 i te 15% neke atu rānei, ka uru ki tētahi awhe kāore i kitea i mua.
He aha ngā kōrero a ngā pūranga hītori ki a tātou?
Ehara a El Niño i te āhuatanga hou, engari i ia wā ka puta he huihuinga "tino kaha", ka waiho he tohu i roto i te hītori o te ahuwhenua.
1997-98: Ko te tihi o te Niño 3.4 mō tēnei huihuinga tata ki te +2.3℃, koia tētahi o ngā mea tino kaha i te rautau 20. I pāngia a Indonesia, Philippines, me Thailand e te tauraki kino. I pūrongo te Whakahaere Kai me te Ahuwhenua o te Kotahitanga o ngā Whenua (FAO) kua heke te hua o ngā hua i Amerika Waenganui me te rohe o te Karipiana tata ki te 15% ki te 20% i whakaritea ki te tau o mua. Ko ētahi whenua i pāngia e te mate kino rawa atu. I tino heke te nui o ngā wāhi whakato witi i Brazil me Argentina nā te ua rerekē. I te Tonga-mā-rāwhiti o Āhia, nā tēnei huihuinga i ngaro ai te tata ki te 15 miriona tana o te raihi.
2015-16: I eke rāua ki te tihi o te +2.6℃, koinei te tihi teitei rawa atu i roto i ngā rekoata o ēnei rā. I heke te hanga kānga i Īnia mā te tata ki te 4%, ā, i heke te hanga raihi mā te tata ki te 1%. I pāngia te mākete o Āhia ki te Tonga-mā-rāwhiti, ā, i piki ake te utu o te raihi, ā, i akiaki a Īnia ki te whakakaha tonu i ngā here kaweake. I pāngia a Āwherika ki te Tonga e te tauraki nui, ā, i heke tere te putanga hiko wai o te Pā o Kariba i Zambia me Zimbabwe, ā, i horapa haere te raruraru pūngao tuarua puta noa i ngā whenua maha.
I te tau 2023-24: I whakarārangihia tēnei huihuinga e te World Meteorological Organization (WMO) hei tētahi o ngā huihuinga tino kaha e rima kua tuhia. Nā tēnei huihuinga, me te mahana haere tonu o te ao, i panaia te tau 2024 kia noho hei tau wera rawa atu kua tuhia, ā, i whakanuia tika te tauraki ahuwhenua i ētahi wāhanga o Āwherika ki te Rawhiti me Āhia ki te Tonga.
I whakaatuhia i roto i tētahi rangahau aromatawai nui i whakaputaina i roto i te Nature Communications i te tau 2014, ko ngā āhuatanga o El Niño te take e rerekē ai te mahi tahi o ngā hua kānga, raihi, me te witi o te ao mai i te awhe noa mā te -4.3% ki te +0.8%, ā, i whai hua ngā pīni soya mā te 2.1% ki te 5.4% nā te pai ake o te ua i ētahi wāhi o Amerika. Kei muri i ēnei raraunga he rerekētanga nui ā-rohe – kāore te hua e whakawhirinaki ki te kaha o te āhuatanga, engari ki te wāhi me te aha e whakatōkia ana e koe.
Te matapae i te rerekētanga ā-rohe i te tau 2026
Kua homai e ngā ture o te hītori he mahere mō ngā mōrearea kāore i te tino tika engari he whai hua.
Īnia me Āhia ki te Tonga: Tata ki te 24% o te hanga raihi o te ao e ahu mai ana i Īnia. He rite tonu te hononga kino o te ua o Īnia ki te ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) – i ngā tau o El Niño, he ngoikore ake te ua o te raumati. Nā ngā huihuinga nui e toru i te tau 1997-98, 2015-16, me te 2023-24 i aukati i ngā kaweake ki New Delhi, ā, ka tukuna te pēhanga ki ngā whenua kawemai raihi o te ao. E mārama ana te pūrongo whakatūpato a te FAO ko te mōrearea o te tauraki ahuwhenua i Āhia ki te Tonga me Āhia ki te Tonga-mā-rāwhiti te "tino kaha", me te tūponotanga neke atu i te 50% i ētahi wāhi e pāngia ana e te tauraki.
Āhia ki te Tonga-mā-rāwhiti: Kei roto a Initonīhia, ngā Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, me Cambodia i te rohe mōrearea nui i roto i ngā tau kua hipa. He tino tairongo te hinu nikau – ko Mareia me Initonīhia ngā kaihanga nui o te hinu nikau o te ao, ā, kāore i mawhiti ngā whenua e rua i ngā āhuatanga kino o El Niño i mua. Kei roto hoki te miro me te huka i te wāhanga mōrearea nui.
Ahitereiria: E kiia ana ko Ahitereiria te whenua whakaputa witi e tino pāngia ana e ngā tohu ENSO o te ao. I ngā tau o El Niño, he maha ngā wā ka kitea he rerekētanga nui o te ua i Queensland me New South Wales mai i ngā taumata noa, ā, he tūponotanga tika tēnei ki te witi me te parei o te kōanga.
Brazil: Ko te āhuatanga tino uaua tēnei. Ko te tikanga ka nui ake te ua i te taha tonga o Brazil nā El Niño, he mea pai mō te tipu o te pīni soya. Heoi, ka taea hoki e te nui o te ua te heke o te kounga kawhe me te pikinga ake o ngā mate o ētahi hua pīni. E whakaatu ana te pūrongo JRC a te Kotahitanga o Ūropi e matapaetia ana ka piki ake te utu o te witi mārō o te ao i roto i te horopaki o te kaha ake o El Niño, i te mea ka heke pea ngā utu o te ao mō te pīni soya me te witi whero mārō o te hotoke nā ngā painga mai i ngā rohe whakaputa o Amerika.
Āwherika ki te Rawhiti me te Sahel: Kei te whai tēnei rohe i tētahi ariā rerekē ki tērā o Āhia ki te Tonga-mā-rāwhiti – i ngā tau o El Niño, ka piki ake te ua, engari i roto i te horopaki o te pirau oneone me te ngoikore o ngā hanganga, kāore pea te ua nui e arahi ki te kotinga engari ka puta mai ngā waipuke me te horo oneone. Kua tukuna e te FAO he whakatūpato mō Hōmāria, ā, kua whakarōpūhia e te taputapu Whakatūpato INFORM a te JRC ētahi whenua o Āwherika Waenganui kei te taumata "mōrearea nui ki te tangata".
Haina: I ngā wā o mua, he rerekē te pānga o El Niño ki Haina i runga i te rohe. I nui te ua i te tonga o Haina, i te mea i piki ake te mōrearea o te tauraki i te raki me te raki-mā-rāwhiti. I te wā o te tau 1997-98, i pā mai he waipuke nui ki te tonga o Haina, ā, i tino tauraki hoki ki te raki-mā-rāwhiti, ā, i pāngia te kotinga i taua tau.
Te arorau tuku o te mākete matū ahuwhenua
Ehara te whanaungatanga i waenga i ngā āhuatanga āhuarangi me te mākete patu pepeke i te hononga pai noa iho, ā, me matapakihia katoatia.
Te mōrearea o te whakahekenga o te tono: I ngā tau tauraki, ka heke te hiahia o ngā kaimahi pāmu ki te whakato me te kaha o ā rātou haumitanga, ā, ko te hoko patupatu tetahi o ngā whakapaunga e tino ngāwari ana te whakaheke. I te wā o te El Niño i te Tonga-mā-rāwhiti o Āhia i te tau 1997-98, ka tino heke te hiahia mō ngā patupatu i Initonīhia me ngā Philippines. Ko tētahi wāhanga o tēnei ko te whakahekenga o te rohe hua, ā, ko tētahi wāhanga nā te mea i whakaitihia e ngā kaimahi pāmu ā rātou haumitanga i muri i te hekenga o ā rātou moni whiwhi.
Ngā huringa hanganga o ngā pepeke me ngā mate: Ko te nui o te ua i ētahi wāhi ka nui haere ngā mate, engari ko te tauraki ka puta mai pea te whakaekenga, te pakarutanga rānei o ētahi pepeke motuhake. I roto i ngā tau o mua, he hononga kei waenganui i ngā tau o El Niño me ngā mahi a ngā pepeke heke pērā i te mawhitiwhiti. I te tau 2023-24, ko te huinga o ngā pāmahana teitei me El Niño i puta ai ngā mahi rerekē o ngā pepeke pērā i te ngārara mā me ngā mite i roto i ngā mākete pārūrū maha.
Te rarangi taonga me te pēhanga whakapaipai: I ngā tau e tino kino ana te āhuarangi ahuwhenua, ka roa te wā e whakaroa ana te whakawātea taonga i roto i ngā huarahi tohatoha mā te kotahi ki te rua hauwhā. I te mākete o Brazil i te wā whakaiti taonga 2023-24, nā te pānga o El Niño i hua mai ai te ua nui o te rohe, ā, i kino haere ngā mate pīni soya (pēnei i te waikura pīni soya Āhia) i ētahi wāhi nā te haumākū nui o te taiao. Ko te tikanga o tēnei rerekētanga ā-rohe mō ngā kaihokohoko matū ahuwhenua Hainamana, i roto i te tau kotahi, tera pea he tino rerekē ngā tohu tono mai i ngā mākete rerekē.
Te pēhanga ngātahi mai i ngā maniua me ngā patu pepeke: He mea tika kia mōhiotia ko te taenga mai o El Niño i te tau 2026, me te whakawhāititanga o ngā mahi kawe whenua i te Moana-a-Toi nā te āhuatanga i te Middle East, kua pēhia kētia ngā kaweake o ngā maniua urea me te phosphate. I roto i tana pūrongo i te marama o Poutū-te-rangi o tēnei tau, i kī mārama a Paul Donovan, te tumuaki ōhanga o UBS: "Ko te korenga o ngā maniua hauota pea ehara i te mea nui rawa atu ki ngā utu ahuwhenua i tēnei tau; ko te El Niño nui rawa atu."
Kua heke te pono o ngā tauira āhuarangi.
I ngā āhuatanga tino kino, ka heke te pono o ngā tauira āhuarangi. E mārama ana te pūrongo a te JRC mēnā ka eke te huihuinga ki te kaha "kāore i kitea i mua", kua hipa atu tana tauira i te whakamahi noa i ngā tauira o mua. He rerekētanga o te +4°Kāore anō kia puta te matekai o te ao i roto i te Niño 3.4 i te wā o ngā rekoata puoro. Nā tētahi huihuinga rite i te tau 1877-78 i puta ai te matekai o te ao, engari kāore ā tātou raraunga tika hou hei hanga i tētahi whakataurite tino tika.
Nō reira, ko te tūnga o tēnei tuhinga: Whakamaherehia ngā mōrearea i runga i ngā kaupapa "kaha ki te tino kaha" i roto i te awhe tūponotanga 70% o nāianei hei horopaki tūāpapa, kaua e petipeti i runga i te horopaki hiku o te +4°C. Kua tino kino kē te mea o mua, ā, he nui ngā tauira hītori hei whakawhirinaki atu.
Ko tētahi atu pūtake o te koretake kei roto i te kaha urupare a te ahuwhenua o Haina. I ngā tau tata nei, kua tino whakanuia e Haina tana haumi ki ngā whakatūpato huarere ahuwhenua me ngā hanganga whakamakuku. Kāore e taea te whakarite i tōna kaha ātete ki te tauraki ki tērā i te tau 1997-98. He rite tonu te āhua i Īnia – ko te pūnaha whakamakuku i muri i te Huringa Kakariki e kapi ana i te wāhanga nui o ngā rohe whakatipu raihi, e whakarei ake ana i tōna kaha ki ngā āhuatanga ua tauhou. Heoi, e whakaatu ana ngā raraunga hītori i te ahunga mōrearea.
Kua tīmata kē te kaupapa El Niño o te tau 2026. Ko te pātai tūturu ko tōna kaha nui rawa atu, me te mea ka taea e te pānga o te āhuarangi me te moana te akiaki i a ia kia hipa ake i ngā tuhinga o mua.
Mō te ahuwhenua o te ao, ko te tikanga o tēnei ka noho tuwhera tonu te matapihi o te koretake o te hanganga mai i te haurua tuarua o tēnei tau tae noa ki te puna o te tau 2027. Mō te umanga matū ahuwhenua, he tohu tēnei mō te rerekētanga ā-rohe o te tono me te whakamātautau ahotea mō te pumau o te mekameka tuku.
E whakaatu ana te hītori ko te pānga o tētahi huihuinga nui o El Niño ki te ahuwhenua he wā whakaroa mō te 6 ki te 12 marama – ko te ngaronga o ngā hua tūturu ka kitea i muri i te tihi o te huihuinga. Ko te tikanga o tēnei, kāore pea ngā utu e kitea ana i te mākete i tēnei wā i tino whakatauritea ki tēnei mōrearea.
Wā tuku: Pipiri-23-2026
